Right now, we’d like to thank the sponsor of this episode: LifeMD. Looking to lose weight and improve your health?
About Annie Duke
Annie Duke is a former professional poker player who now works as a decision strategist, speaker and author. She studied cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania before turning to poker. Her books include Thinking in Bets, How to Decide and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. She co-founded the Alliance for Decision Education, which works to bring decision skills into K-12 schools, and she coaches executives on how they make hard calls.
Key takeaways
- Grit and quitting work together, because success comes from sticking with the right things and walking away from the rest.
- A story of someone who succeeded after sticking it out tells you nothing about whether sticking it out will work for you, because you never hear from the people who kept going and failed.
- Most people quit too late, since they wait for so much certainty that the choice is made for them.
- To beat the sunk toll trap, ask whether you’d start the project today knowing what you know now, and if not, stop.
- Fear of loss makes you focus on what could go wrong with a new path and ignore how bad the current one is, so ask whether you’re better off with the role empty or the job gone.
- Set kill criteria and a deadline ahead of time, and bring in a coach or mentor who can see what you can’t.
Knowing what to do is one thing, and acting on it in front of real people is another. If you want help with the social side of tough choices, here’s how we work on confidence and presence.
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In today’s episode, we tackle decision making with some of the world’s experts on the topic. First, Annie Duke, a former professional poker player now a coach and author of Quit, The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. Next, David Siegel, CEO of Meetup.com and author of Decide and Conquer, shares his expertise on leadership decision-making. Dan Ariely, a Duke University professor and renowned author, who delves into overcoming indecision and regret. Finally, former intelligence officer and author Shane Parrish talks about his book Clear Thinking: Turning Extraordinary Moments Into Extraordinary Results.
From the influence of regret on our choices to the impact of blind spots on decision patterns, our guests offer practical strategies to enhance your decision-making skills. Join us as we explore the power of timely action, the significance of embracing change, and the transformative potential of making better decisions.
What to Listen For
- Introduction – 0:00
- Most people have no idea that this one mindset shift will lead to life changing improvements in decision making
- Most people make bad decisions because of these factors – 9:28
- How do most people get stuck in making decisions and what can you do to get unstuck?
- What are the most common biases we have to overcome to make the right decisions?
- How do you overcome the sunk cost problem so you don’t waste years of your life trying to make a prior bad decision work?
- This bias stops people from reaching high levels of success – 21:39
- Why are most people stuck making decisions that keep them where they are instead of making decisions that put them on track to where they want to be?
- Use these tools to avoid making terrible decisions – 33:55
- How do you create a habit so you make great decisions and avoid terrible decisions without even thinking about them?
- Most people will never ask this simple question to obtain a mentor who could change their lives forever
- People don’t prioritize this area of decision making enough – 44:09
- How do you create rules for automatic success?
- When is the right time to quit something you’re invested in?
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Resources from this Episode
- Annie Duke | The Secret Ingredient to Making the RIGHT Decision When It Really Matters
- A Guide to Leadership Decision Making | David Siegel
- Dan Ariely: How to Defeat Indecision and Regret
- Create the OUTCOME You Want | A Conversation with Shane Parrish
Check in with AJ and Johnny!
- AJ on LinkedIn
- Johnny on LinkedIn
- AJ on Instagram
- Johnny on Instagram
- The Art of Charm on Instagram
- The Art of Charm on YouTube
- The Art of Charm on TikTok
Best quotes from Annie Duke
“success actually comes from Mostly quitting and then being very very picky about what you really put your time and energy into”
Annie Duke, 2:30
“what’s true in retrospect is not true prospectively that if I stick to something I will succeed”
Annie Duke, 6:30
“most people won’t quit until it’s no longer a choice”
Annie Duke, 16:30
“would you start it today and if the answer is no then you shouldn’t keep going”
Annie Duke, 42:30
“maybe not but what if nobody’s in the role are you better off”
Annie Duke, 55:30
FAQ
Is quitting ever the right decision?
Yes. Annie Duke argues that success comes from quitting most of what you try and sticking with the few things worth your time. The skill is telling which is which, by comparing what you’d gain from staying against what else you could be doing.
What is the sunk toll fallacy and how do you avoid it?
It’s the pull to keep going with something because of the time or money you’ve already spent. Annie suggests a forward-looking test: if you hadn’t spent anything yet, would you start this today? If the answer is no, every extra dollar or hour is just an attempt to avoid feeling you wasted the earlier ones.
Why do people quit too late instead of too early?
Quitting is a decision made under uncertainty, so there’s always some chance you could turn things around. People wait until the evidence is overwhelming, and by then they’ve often lost months or years. Annie notes that when quitting is objectively right, it will usually feel too early.
What are kill criteria?
Kill criteria are signals you write down in advance that would tell you it’s time to stop. Annie has clients set a deadline, such as six weeks or six months, and decide what they’d need to see by then. Doing this before you’re in the middle of the decision makes it much easier to follow through.
What is tradeoffs neglect?
It’s the habit of ignoring everything else you could be doing while you’re committed to one thing. Annie points to Stewart Butterfield, who only noticed the internal tool that became Slack after he shut down his game.
Why is it so hard to leave a job or relationship that isn’t working?
Loss aversion makes you focus on what could go wrong with a new path, while the downsides of staying feel less urgent. Annie asks people to compare the odds directly: how likely are you to be happy a year from now if you stay, versus if you switch?
Related reading
- Build resilience and grit with David Goggins and Rich Diviney
- Geoff Woods on reaching your goals faster
- What to do when you're passed over for a promotion
- How to build confidence
Curious what it looks like to practice this with a coach and a group beside you? Take a look at the 90-day Art of Charm program, which starts with a 1:1 onboarding call with Johnny and includes weekly group coaching.
