In this Art of Charm podcast episode, the hosts explain why uncertainty stresses us more than bad news, and how purpose, a written courage card, clear leadership habits and a simple follow-up routine help you act anyway.
Listen on: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
Key Takeaways
- A 2016 study from University College London found that a small chance of a painful shock was more stressful than knowing a shock would definitely come, with a 50 percent chance the most stressful of all.
- People often make the least costly mistake by avoiding the unknown, such as staying in the corner at a party, not asking for a raise or not setting a boundary, and that choice quietly blocks growth.
- A clear sense of purpose and values makes a single setback or moment of doubt feel smaller, which helps when making big life decisions like changing careers or moving cities.
- A courage card is a note you write while calm, answering what the worst realistic outcome is, how likely it is, whether it will matter in three months, and how it would feel to try or to succeed.
- Indecision builds pressure over time, so committing your full effort to a choice and learning from the result beats waiting for a perfectly clear answer.
- New leaders reduce their team's uncertainty by setting specific expectations, asking people to repeat directions back, checking in early, giving balanced feedback, and applying real consequences and rewards.
- Getting promoted can inflate confidence in your own judgment, so regular check-ins act as a guard against biases and blind spots.
- When moving to a new city, pick two or three events you genuinely enjoy, talk to a few people, collect contacts only from good conversations, and follow up with attention, appreciation and an invitation.
Curious how people build this kind of presence in real conversations? See how the X Factor approach works.
Who hosts The Art of Charm Podcast?
AJ Harbinger is a co-host of The Art of Charm podcast, which is hosted by two co-hosts. In this toolbox episode the two hosts discuss how to live with uncertainty in relationships, at work and after a move. The episode draws on the hosts' work with young men and women who come through their coaching classrooms dealing with uncertainty, and on the story of building The Art of Charm itself. The hosts describe leaving earlier careers in science and music and moving to New York City without radio or business experience, because a sense of purpose mattered more than a guaranteed outcome. They also discuss a guest coach's study, advice from a serial entrepreneur on leadership, and practical steps for making friends as an adult.
Episode Chapters
- 02:55 Why uncertainty feels so stressful
- 04:38 The least costly mistake
- 09:49 Embrace uncertainty with purpose
- 19:38 The courage card exercise
- 26:47 Dealing with indecision
- 30:26 Four tasks for new leaders
- 46:57 Promotion biases and blind spots
- 50:31 Moving to a new city
- 59:11 Small goals at events
- 62:46 The follow-up and social sales funnel
Why does uncertainty cause more stress than knowing something bad will happen?
Around 02:55 in the episode
A 2016 study discussed in the episode found that people were more stressed when there was a small or even chance of a shock than when a shock was certain. Not knowing what will happen is harder on the body than knowing.
The episode opens a new monthly theme about navigating new relationships and new roles in life. After a month focused on toxic relationships, the hosts point out that removing toxic people creates its own uncertainty. You may wonder whether you will make new friends or how you will get along with new coworkers. Before getting into those areas, they stop to look at what uncertainty actually does to us.
A guest coach describes a 2016 study from University College London. Participants played a video game in which they picked up virtual rocks, and every so often a snake was hiding under one. Picking up a rock with a snake under it meant a small electric shock. The researchers tracked stress signals such as heart rate and sweat while this went on.
The finding that stood out was that knowing there is a small chance of a painful shock led to significantly more stress than knowing a shock would definitely happen. Situations with a 50 percent chance of a shock were the most stressful, while a 0 percent chance and even a 100 percent chance were less stressful. In other words, the stress comes from the not knowing more than from the pain itself.
The episode description adds an evolutionary angle. Humans evolved to look for patterns because an unfamiliar place in the wild could mean danger. That is why the stress of uncertainty feels hardwired, and why it shows up around job interviews, presentations, third dates and big purchases or sales. The more attached you are to the outcome, the more anxiety the uncertainty tends to cause.
What is the least costly mistake and how does it hold us back?
Around 04:38 in the episode
It is the habit of choosing a small, certain loss, like staying in the corner at a party, to avoid a big uncertain one. It feels safe, but it blocks the growth, approval and connection people also want.
To make the study feel real, the episode uses a social event. You see someone you want to talk to and the questions start. What if I make a bad first impression, what if I run out of things to say, what if it gets awkward? The only way to make the outcome completely certain is to say nothing and stay where you are. You accept a small loss in exchange for avoiding a worse one.
This is called making the least costly mistake, and the episode ties it to evolutionary psychology with a time machine thought experiment. Picture a shadow in the distance in a forest twenty thousand years ago. It could be a bush full of berries or it could be a bear. Our ancestors who took a long detour around the shadow survived, and the ones who gambled on the berries often did not.
The same pattern shows up today in ordinary places. People do not ask for a raise because they are unsure of the answer, do not ask someone out because they might be turned down, and do not set a boundary with a friend because they would rather not be shut down or ignored.
The hosts also describe the other side of this inner struggle. Part of us wants development, attention, approval and acceptance, and standing against the wall will not deliver those either. They note that rationalizations such as thinking others were simply born lucky can keep us feeling safe, and that the smarter someone is, the better their rationalizations get. Telling the beliefs that hold you back from the ones that push you forward takes an honest, objective look.
How can purpose help you push through uncertainty?
Around 09:49 in the episode
When your actions are tied to a deeper purpose, a single setback or moment of doubt feels smaller. The episode treats learning to live with uncertainty as a skill, and purpose as the engine behind it.
The counterintuitive answer in the episode is that you do not remove uncertainty, you learn to embrace it. Life is inherently uncertain, and the one thing you can control is how you react. Do you ask for the raise, ask for the date, or set the boundary even though success is not guaranteed? Being able to live with that is described as a massively underrated skill in dating, social life and work.
The first tool the hosts offer is purpose. If your purpose is to build your own company or pursue a larger dream, one negative reaction or one no from a boss does not carry the same weight. The episode gives several examples of purpose carrying people through. One is a shy kid who wanted to be in a band badly enough to start meeting people and asking them to join. Another is the decision to start a podcast and coaching company about social skills years ago, when almost no one knew what a podcast was.
The hosts describe leaving earlier careers in science and music and moving to New York City with no radio experience and no business background. They say the shared mission of being open, honest and seeing opportunities instead of failures gave them enough meaning to make the move. One host also explains how a core value of education, learned growing up, now powers the teaching they do.
The conversation widens to a bigger concern. The hosts suggest that rising anxiety and depression may partly come from purpose and meaning being diluted or replaced by superficial goals. They also discuss parents who try to remove all uncertainty from their children's lives, and ask how those children will develop the tools to cope as adults.
What is a courage card and how do you use it?
Around 19:38 in the episode
A courage card is a short note, written while you are calm, that answers five questions about a situation that makes you anxious. You carry it and read it when stress rises, so your rational self can talk to your anxious self.
The most practical tool in the episode is a reality check on your uncertainty so it does not hold you back or get blown out of proportion. It is called a courage card, and it is designed to disarm the hot and cold empathy gap. That gap describes how we can think clearly about a situation beforehand, but once we are in it our heart rate rises, anxiety bubbles up and everything seems to go wrong.
You write the card on a small piece of paper or in a note on your phone for a situation you face often. It asks five questions. First, what is the worst that could happen, answered realistically rather than with something like sleeping under a bridge. Second, on a scale from zero to ten, how likely is that outcome? Third, if the worst does happen, will it still matter three months from now? Fourth, how would it feel to try? Fifth, how would it feel to actually succeed?
Because you wrote it while calm, you can pull it out in the moment and trust that earlier, more rational version of yourself over the panic. The hosts add a sixth question of their own, which is whether freaking out will help you in this moment. They point out that it usually works against you.
They also apply the card to removing a toxic friend. The worst case might be having no one to talk to at lunch, but when you rate how likely that is out of ten, you often realize the fear is not tied to reality. Doing this work ahead of time often means you walk in feeling secure and may not need to pull out the card at all. The hosts also stress that you do not control outcomes but you do control your effort, and that older people tend to catastrophize less because they have been through more.
How do you deal with indecision when there is no clear right choice?
Around 26:47 in the episode
Commit fully to a choice rather than waiting for certainty. The episode argues that stalling builds pressure and costs opportunities, while any decision, even a wrong one, teaches you something.
After the courage card, the hosts turn to indecision and how it feeds uncertainty. When you move into the unknown there is only so much information you can gather, and often the information does not point to one obvious choice. People who are reserved and calculated want to be sure their decisions are right, and this can slide into analysis paralysis.
The episode describes the cost of this. Each day or week without a chosen path adds pressure and tension, and for someone who struggles with indecision that stress becomes a constant background in life. They note that people can blow large opportunities because there was no clear-cut sign of where to go. The hosts also admit that there are plusses and minuses to each style, since being thorough is valuable but can wear you down, while leaning impulsive has its own risks.
The suggested mindset is that sometimes there are no right or wrong decisions, only decisions you make. Once there is no clear winner, the job is to put one hundred percent of your effort into making your choice work. Even if it blows up, you learn something you did not know before.
The hosts reference a quote attributed to a co-founder of Dropbox, that the number of failures does not matter because you only have to get it right once. The takeaway is that bad decisions are impossible to avoid entirely. What matters is the lessons you take from them and the action that moves you forward.
What is the best advice for someone entering a leadership role for the first time?
Around 30:26 in the episode
The episode shares four tasks from a serial entrepreneur: set clear expectations, check in frequently, offer feedback and mentorship, and apply consequences and rewards. Each one reduces the uncertainty your team feels.
One of the most common reasons people seek out the hosts is a move into a new role. You were great at the old job, now you have to manage a team, and your relationships with former peers shift because you are now the boss. The hosts share advice from a serial entrepreneur guest who broke leadership into four tasks.
The first is setting expectations. Being vague because you are unsure how to lead leaves your team in uncertainty, and they will not like it. The hosts tie this back to the snake study, since a coworker who does not know what is needed to get the job done is under the same stress. Be specific, such as naming an exact deadline instead of saying a couple of weeks, and make expectations run both ways so your team knows what they can expect from you, including what an open-door policy or a check-in really means.
A useful trick is to have people explain directions back to you. Communication often becomes one-way when someone becomes a leader, and asking a person to restate what they will do catches miscommunication before they go charging out the door. The second task is checking in frequently without micromanaging. That can be a short, regular stand-up with each team member, with the first detailed check-in at about the 10 percent mark of a project.
The third task is feedback and mentorship that includes what is going well along with what needs work, because constant negative feedback pushes people toward feeling unwanted and toward a toxic environment. The fourth is consequences and rewards. When there are no consequences for poor work, other team members become demotivated and resentful. The hosts recommend being unambiguous about what must change and by when, and celebrating great work so others see it rewarded.
How can a promotion create biases and blind spots for managers?
Around 46:57 in the episode
A promotion can boost your ego and your trust in your own judgment, making you less likely to question hunches about people. The four leadership habits act as a check against those biases.
After the four tasks, the hosts raise the biases that come into play when we get elevated at work. A promotion feels like proof that management trusts us, and it is easy to read that as evidence that our judgment is sound. The episode mentions an interview with Sam Harris and Daniel Kahneman about how ineffective job interviews can be, because interviewers bring their own biases into the room.
The hosts connect this to their own experience building a team over many years. Some people turned out to be great fits and others were puzzles, even when they thought they had a good read at the start. If you let that sort of surprise get to you, it can make you doubt yourself, but the lesson they draw is that however much you think you know about someone, a lot of it is hunch and intuition.
This is where the leadership habits earn their keep. Walking over to see what a coworker is doing at ten percent of a project takes work, and part of you would rather stay in the break room or avoid looking like you are on their case. It is tempting to say you personally interviewed the person and know they have it handled. Meanwhile the person may be heading in a direction nobody predicted.
The point is that these biases can become massive blind spots once ego has been inflated by a promotion. Regular check-ins, clear expectations and honest feedback keep you from forming fixed beliefs about colleagues based only on past performance. The hosts also tie this to relationships more broadly, noting that we will make mistakes and that the goal is to keep those mistakes from eroding our spirit and resolve.
How do you make friends when moving to a new city?
Around 50:31 in the episode
Start by researching two or three events you genuinely enjoy, then go and talk to a few people. The episode says adult friendships take deliberate effort because the forced socialization of school is gone.
The final section addresses a listener question from someone moving from Omaha to Seattle with a dog, who met most friends through the military or college and wonders how to meet people in their 30s. The hosts begin by noting the upside of a move, which is the chance to reinvent yourself and act as the person you want to be. They also warn that the same biases return, because after leaving people behind you may become overly harsh on who you let in and forget how little you know about new people.
They explain why adult friendships are harder. In school and on campus, socialization was forced and gave ample opportunity to make friends. As adults we can stay in, and it is easy to fall into virtual relationships and feel social just because we posted and got some likes. The hosts also cite a figure from the United States Census Bureau, that about 11 percent of Americans move every year and about a third of those move to a different county.
To reduce the stress of the unknown, they give a step-by-step plan. The first step is to do a little research and pick two or three events that interest you, such as dancing, cooking, CrossFit, a show or a comedy night. Ask what the new you would like to do, or what you have always wanted to try but never made time for. Because you chose something you enjoy, you still get value from going out even if you do not meet many people.
The hosts say bars are not the best place to meet friends when you are starting out, since there is no guarantee you will click and most people there came with their own group. They also share a personal story about the sudden wave of emotion that hit just days before a big move, laughing and crying at once while closing up a venue alone. Their message is that feeling stressed or freaked out during a major life change is normal and okay.
How do you approach networking events without feeling overwhelmed?
Around 59:11 in the episode
Set small goals, such as staying for an hour and a half and having a few quality conversations. The episode favors quality over quantity and suggests easy topics like ambitions, travel and hometowns.
Once you have picked your events, the next step is to talk to people while you are there. The hosts describe a group member who was nervous about networking events because they looked at the whole evening as one huge block of time. The advice is to break it down. Being seen and being supportive does not mean staying from the moment doors open until you are thrown out.
The hosts say hosts and fellow guests would rather you stay for an hour and a half and be engaged and positive than stay three hours and be negative. Small goals are easier to reach, so aim to speak to two or three people. They stress quality over quantity, meaning the goal is a good conversation, not collecting twenty business cards or seventeen handshakes.
For things to talk about, the episode offers a few easy openers. One is ambitions and goals, such as where someone sees themselves in five years, which taps into their potential and gets them excited. Another is travel, since many people are planning or posting about a trip, and a question like what are you excited about invites positive emotion. A third is hometowns, because everyone has opinions about where they come from, what was good and bad, and why they left.
The hosts also remind listeners that some conversations will be great and some will be duds. You do not know who you are talking to or what they have been through, so give people grace. They push back on the idea that you need to be a super connector with the brightest light in the room. Relaxing, chatting with a few people and spending real time on those connections is where good relationships start.
What is the social sales funnel and how do you follow up with new contacts?
Around 62:46 in the episode
It is a simple routine described in the episode: pick events, talk to people, get contact details only from good conversations, then follow up with attention, appreciation and an invitation. It puts you in control of building friendships.
After talking to people, the episode says to get contact information from those you really enjoyed talking to, not from everyone in the room. If you collect a hundred numbers you cannot follow up in a meaningful way, and it becomes a full-time job. The follow-up is where the magic happens, because you will not build a relationship if you do nothing after the event.
The hosts suggest reaching out to the organizer or promoter to thank them. Event planning and promotion can be thankless, and one host describes the music side, where the band takes credit when a show goes well and blames the promoter when it goes badly. A thank you is remembered and may put you first on the invite list next time.
In the follow-up itself the hosts recommend offering three things. The first is attention, which means sharing something you remembered from the conversation, like sending an article about a team the person said they loved. The second is appreciation, which means giving the host credit for bringing people together. The third is acceptance, which means welcoming the person into your life, and the easiest way is to invite them to the next event you plan to attend, such as a cooking class or an improv class.
The hosts call this the social sales funnel and say it is an easy way to filter in great people because you take the lead. No social circle forms around you by osmosis, and hope is not a strategy. Pack your patience, since some people will say yes and not show up, but you are already going to events you enjoy, you are in a good mood, and you are only connecting with people you clicked with. The episode closes by previewing a follow-up on navigating romantic relationships.
Want to see what it looks like to walk into any room and own it? Find out how X Factor works.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is AJ Harbinger?
AJ Harbinger is a co-host of The Art of Charm podcast. In this toolbox episode, the hosts discuss uncertainty in relationships, at work and after moving to a new place, drawing on their coaching work and on the story of building The Art of Charm. They also bring in a guest coach's study.
What does the episode say about navigating uncertainty?
The episode argues that uncertainty cannot be eliminated, so the skill is learning to live with it. The hosts recommend leaning on purpose, writing a courage card while calm, committing to decisions instead of stalling, and taking deliberate action in new roles and new cities rather than waiting for certainty.
What did the 2016 uncertainty study find?
As discussed in the episode, a 2016 University College London study had people pick up virtual rocks that sometimes hid a snake and gave a small shock. A small chance of a shock caused more stress than a certain shock, and a 50 percent chance was the most stressful.
What is a courage card?
It is a note you write while calm for a situation that makes you anxious. It asks what the realistic worst case is, how likely it is from zero to ten, whether it will matter in three months, and how it would feel to try or succeed. The hosts also add whether freaking out will help.
What leadership advice does the episode give new managers?
The episode shares four tasks: set specific expectations in both directions, check in early and often (with a first detailed check-in around the 10 percent mark of a project), give balanced feedback and mentorship, and apply clear consequences and rewards. It also suggests asking people to repeat directions back.
How can you make friends after moving to a new city?
The hosts suggest choosing two or three events you truly enjoy, staying for a manageable time, and talking to a few people about ambitions, travel or hometowns. Collect contact details only from good conversations, then follow up with attention, appreciation and an invitation to a next event.
How does indecision relate to uncertainty?
The more uncertain you feel, the easier it is to stall, and the longer you stall the more stress builds. The episode suggests that when there is no clear right answer, you should choose, give the choice your full effort, and learn from the outcome, since even a failed decision teaches something.
More Episodes Like This
- 743: Relationship Goals: Love, Friends & Work
- 750: Overcoming Self-Doubt with Jay Shetty
- Lynn Lyons | Playing with Anxiety (Episode 642)
- How To Grow Your Network Through Social Capital (Ep. #781)
- Networking Advice No One Tells You (Ep. #782)
